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641
FXUS66 KLOX 141202
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
502 AM PDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/400 AM.

Another storm system will drop into the region today. A cold air
mass will remain in place with light to moderate rain and
mountain snow spreading over the area through the day. Dry and
warmer weather will follow over the weekend as high pressure aloft
builds into the region. Some cooling will develop for early next
week with a chance of showers between Monday and Tuesday, then
drying trend will establish with some gusty northerly winds at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/459 AM.

Another storm system is pushing into the Central Coast of
California this morning. Light rain will pickup slightly in
intensity after daybreak this morning and spread into the
Southland as the morning progresses. Inline with the latest
forecast guidance output and high-resolution multi-model
ensembles, PoPs mention categorical rain over the majority of the
area, except for the Antelope Valley. With a tad more southerly
flow component, rainfall estimates and hourly rainfall rates are
higher over the previous forecast.

Generally, light to moderate rainfall is expected, but there is a
low-to-moderate chance of brief heavy downpours, especially for
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. The current forecast
mentions rainfall rates between 0.10 and 0.25 inch per hour, but
the latest several HRRR solutions and HIRES WRF solutions suggest
the highest chance of heavier rainfall to be across southwest
Santa Barbara County near Point Conception. Isolated brief heavy
downpours up to around 0.50 inch per hour are possible. While no
thunderstorms are mentioned currently in the forecast, there is a
non-zero chance of thunderstorms for areas north of Point
Conception where an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out.

Storm total rainfall amounts are up partially due to more
southerly flow, but also the storm`s cold front holding the
ingredients together a little longer. WPC estimates came much
higher over the previous forecast and rainfall amounts have been
increased, especially when looking at the good agreement between
high-resolution solutions across the region. Precipitation
amounts will range from 0.33 to 0.66 inch across the coast and
valley south of Point Conception with up to 1.00 inch in the Santa
Ynez Range. North of Point Conception, rainfall amounts will
range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch with local amounts up to 1.25 inch in
the Santa Lucia range and into foothills in western Santa Barbara
County.

The snow levels will be quite tricky today as a cold air mass
remains from yesterday`s storm. The snow level is around 2500 feet
this morning, but the snow level is progged to lift through the
day as the warm sector of the storm moves into the region. There
is some concern of light snow accumulation across interior San
Luis Obispo County, the Cuyama Valley, and into the Santa Ynez
range this morning briefly as the precipitation spreads in. By
this afternoon, the snow level will raise to between 5000 and 6000
feet, then the cold air sector of the storm will move into the
region overnight tonight and bring accumulating snow again to the
mountain passes such as the Grapevine portion of Interstate 5. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for most of the higher
mountain areas in southwest California, but there is a chance that
a Winter Weather Advisory could be needed for the San Luis Obispo
County mountains. Additional accumulations will generally be
light to moderate, but there is a chance of locally higher
accumulation up to a foot at the resort level.

Winds will be much weaker with this system versus the last one.
Enough of a gradient exists to add wind advisories for the Central
Coast portion of the area and out into the Antelope Valley this
afternoon. As a result, a marginal advisory has been issued for
late this morning through early this evening.

As we get into the weekend, a high pressure system will build
into the region and a warming and drying trend will establish.
Temperatures will still remain on the cool side of normal, but a
bit more sunshine should be expected over the weekend.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/455 AM.

A weaker storm system will drop into the region early next week
between Monday and Tuesday. NBM values give some cooling to the
forecast, but there is a decent chance that the cooling is not
cold enough. Snow levels are also likely not low enough as 700 mb
temperatures drop to -10 degrees Celsius in the latest
deterministic solutions. EPS ensembles suggest 850 mb temperature
means dropping to near -3 degrees Celsius, which would suggest
snow levels lower than the Tejon Pass. The latest ensembles
continue to lean toward a system affecting areas of north of Point
Conception and the northern slopes of the mountains. The
Southland may only end up seeing mostly gusty winds with the
storm, except maybe some showers developing across thew San
Gabriel Valley.

The latest forecast ensemble advertise a weak weather system for
late next week. About 30-40 percent of the solutions have rain for
the northern areas, but the forecast lean toward a drying trend.
The main impact would likely be cooler temperatures, some clouds,
and northerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1121Z.

At 1105Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Moderate to low confidence in TAFs. A front will bring light and
locally moderate rain to the region at northern sites first and
moving southward through the day. Timing of rainfall may be off
+/- 2 hours. LIFR to IFR conds are possible during any rainfall,
but MVFR conds are most likely. Another westerly to northwesterly
wind push is expected behind the front.

KLAX...Moderate to low confidence in TAF. -RA may begin as early
as 14Z. LIFR to IFR conds are possible during rainfall. East
winds will begin as early as 15Z, but will likely remain less than
8 kts until 18Z. Moderate confidence in east wind component
reaching at least 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt possible, especially
between 18Z and 00Z. An abrupt shift to west- northwest winds
will occur around 02Z, but timing may be off +/- 2 hours.

KBUR...Moderate to low confidence in TAF. -RA may begin as early
as 14Z. LIFR to IFR conds are possible during rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...14/238 AM.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
impact the coastal waters early this morning, with conditions
possible dipping below advisory levels at times. Then, another
cold front will move across the waters later this morning and
continuing through this afternoon and evening, bringing periods
of rain and and a small but nonzero chance (less than 10% chance)
of isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm could produce gusty
winds, heavy rains, small hail, and lightning. SCA level S to SE
winds will impact the waters ahead of the front. Behind the front,
SCA level NW winds will persist through Saturday, with brief,
localized Gale force wind gusts possible (20-30% chance). Complex
seas will consist of a large, longer period NW swell, along with
shorter period southerly wind waves. SCA winds and large, rough
seas are expected across all of the waters through Saturday.

Saturday night through early Monday, winds will subside below SCA
levels and seas will diminish, especially nearshore in the S.
California Bight. Monday afternoon through Tuesday, NW winds will
increase to high-end SCA levels with a chance (30-40%) of Gale-
force gusts at times, especially over the outer waters north of
the Channel Islands, as another storm system is poised to sweep
through the region. However, confidence is lower in the Monday
through Tuesday timeframe, as there is some uncertainty with
how far south this system will reach.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone
      87. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
      this evening for zones 340-341-346-347-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion